Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer (Geneva: IPCC, 2014), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf. See Christopher R. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, and Philip B. Duffy, «RCP8.5 Tracks Cumulative CO2 Emissions», PNAS 117, no. 33 (August 18, 2020), pp. 19656-19657, https://www.pnas.org/content/117/33/19656.

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1564

David Frame and Myles R. Allen, «Climate Change and Global Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 279–281. См. также: Bjorn Lomborg, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet (New York: Basic Books, 2020); Michael Shellenberger, Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All (New York: HarperCollins, 2020).

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1565

Elizabeth Weil, «They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?» ProPublica, August 28, 2020, https://www.propublica.org/article/they-know-howtoprevent-megafires-why-wont-anybody-listen.

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1566

Chingy Tse-Cheng, «Expert Warns China’s Three Gorges Dam in Danger of Collapse», Taiwan News, June 22, 2020, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951673; Keoni Everington, «Videos Show Massive Flooding in S. China, Three Gorges Dam Next», Taiwan News, June 23, 2020, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3952434.

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1567

Jacob B. Lowenstern et al., «Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions – What’s in Yellowstone’s Future?» U. S. Geological Survey and National Park Service (2005), https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/fs2005–3024.pdf.

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1568

Milan Cirkovic, «Observation Selection Effects and Global Catastrophic Risks», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 135–137.

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1569

Arnon Dar, «Influence of Supernovae, Gamma-Ray Bursts, Solar Flares, and Cosmic Rays on the Terrestrial Environment», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 259.

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1570

Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018), p. 322. См. также: «The World Should Think Better About Catastrophic and Existential Risks», Economist, June 25, 2020, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/06/25/the-world-should-think-better-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risks.

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1571

Frank Wilczek, «Big Troubles, Imagined and Real», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 356f. См. также: Katsuhiko Sato, «First-Order Phase Transition of a Vacuum and the Expansion of the Universe», Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 195 (May 1981), pp. 467–479.

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1572

Nick Bostrom, «The Vulnerable World Hypothesis», Working Paper, v.3.42, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford (2018).

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1573

Joseph Cirincione, «The Continuing Threat of Nuclear War», and William C. Potter and Gary Ackerman, «Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism:

A Preventable Peril», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). См. также: Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 278f.

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1574

Ali Nouri and Christopher F. Chyba, «Biotechnology and Biosecurity», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 456f.

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1575

Martin Jinek et al., «A Programmable Dual-RNA – Guided-DNA Endonuclease in Adaptive Bacterial Immunity», Science 337, no. 6096 (August 17, 2012), pp. 816–821. См. также: Jennifer Kahn, «The CRISPR Quandary», New York Times Magazine, November 9, 2015, www.nytimes.come/2015/11/15/magazine/the-cripsr-quandary.html.

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1576

«Biotech: DIY Disaster Zone», Financial Times, June 23, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/7c0d9214-938d-4931-868e-e3533b8da70a.

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1577

Christopher Wills, Children of Prometheus: The Accelerating Pace of Human Evolution (Reading, MA: Perseus, 1998).

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1578

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 292–299.

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1579

Eliezer Yudkowsky, «AI as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 201–207. См. также: James J. Hughes, «Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 79–81.

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1580

Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, «Nanotechnology as Global Catastrophic Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 488f. See K. E. Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992).

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1581

Toby Ord, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity (New York: Hachette, 2020).

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1582

Richard A. Posner, «Public Policy Towards Catastrophe», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008),