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Céline Cunen, Nils Lid Hjort, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, «Statistical Sightings of Better Angels: Analysing the Distribution of Battle-Deaths in Interstate Conflict Over Time», Journal of Peace Research 57, no. 2 (2020), pp. 221–234.
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Edward D. Lee et al., «A Scaling Theory of Armed Conflict Avalanches», April 29, 2020, arXiv:2004.14311v1.
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Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09, 36 (2009), http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.
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Edward Lorenz, «Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow», Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20 (1963), pp. 130, 141.
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Edward Lorenz, «Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?» presented before the American Association for the Advancement of Science, December 29, 1972.
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Simon Kennedy and Peter Coy, «Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting Recessions?» Bloomberg Businessweek, March 27, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20190328/economists-are-actually-terribleatforecasting-recessions.
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Christopher G. Langton, «Computation at the Edge of Chaos: Phase Transitions and Emergent Computation», Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 42, nos. 1–3 (1990), pp. 12–37.
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После этого – значит, по причине этого (лат.).
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Taleb, Black Swan, pp. 62–84.
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Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (New York: Knopf, 2006).
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Paul Krugman, «Disaster and Denial», New York Times, December 13, 2009.
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Melanie Mitchell, Complexity: A Guided Tour (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009).
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M. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992).
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См.: John H. Holland, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (New York: Perseus, 1995).
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См., напр.: Stuart Kauffman, At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 5.
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Holland, Hidden Order, p. 5. См. также: John H. Holland, Emergence: From Chaos to Order (Reading, MA: Perseus, 1998).
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics», Edge, September 15, 2008.
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Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World (New York: Penguin Press, 2008).
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Yacov Haimes, «Systems-Based Risk Analysis», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 161f.
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D. C. Krakauer, «The Star Gazer and the Flesh Eater: Elements of a Theory of Metahistory», Cliodynamics 2. no. 1 (2011), pp. 82-105; Peter J. Richerson, «Human Cooperation Is a Complex Problem with Many Possible Solutions: Perhaps All of Them Are True!» Cliodynamics, 4, no. 1 (2013), pp. 139–152.
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W. R. Thompson, «Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium», Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco (2008).
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«The World Should Think Better About Catastrophic and Existential Risks», Economist, June 25, 2020, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/06/25/the-world-should-think-better-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risks.
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Минимумы названы в честь британских астрономов Эдварда Уолтера Маундера и его жены Энни, основоположников изучения солнечных пятен, и немца Германа Густава Шпёрера, который первым обнаружил низкую солнечную активность после 1618 года. (Прим. авт.)
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John A. Eddy, «The Maunder Minimum», Science 192, no. 4245 (June 1976), pp. 1189–1202, https://doi:10.1126/science.192.4245.1189.
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William Napier, «Hazards from Comets and Asteroids», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 230–235.
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Michael M.
